On Tuesday the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their real estate forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011 in Barrie. As you may have already read in my blog posting on Monday, there are two main elements to their forecast: (1) The shift in mix of new housing types, (2) and that the market will remain balanced into the beginning of 2012. However when we look at the Barrie market on a quarterly level we can learn a little bit more about what influences it.

New home starts in the Barrie area have continued to grow, even throughout the recession. According to CMHC in the city of Barrie new home starts have increased on a year-to-date basis. The Barrie area has seen a 45% increase in starts from January to September in 2011 compared to 2010. In the City of Barrie itself new starts have increased by 67%. As you may have read in my blog on Monday the mix of new home starts is now predominately high density housing (row homes and apartments). There are 3 main reasons for this shift: (1) land limitations in Barrie, (2) economic uncertainty and (3) More mature migrants to Barrie looking for high-density housing.

Don't take this to mean that the demand for single detached homes has vanished. Many buyers are still looking for single detached homes. In fact, according to CMHC, the average price of a singe detached home has been trending up. The improving economic landscape and low mortgage rates create buyers who are more willing to purchase higher priced homes. In addition many of those migrating to Barrie are older and some are able to purchase higher-end home due to the following factors: (1) The price gap between nearby markets, (2) low mortgage rates, (3) the improved economic landscape, and (4) in many cases earned home equity from the home they sold to move to the Barrie market.

When looking at the Resale market we see that seasonally adjusted sales from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2011 have grown almost 4%. From the third quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2011 many elements have affected the market: (1) a fairly healthy economy, (2) many jobs, including full time jobs, coming back, (3) better employment prospects and (4) low mortgage rates. According to CMHC all of these factors have contributed to sales growing faster than new listings. The market still remains balanced but is trending towards the upper boundary i.e. more sales than new listings. This will cause price growth to accelerate. So if you've been thinking about listing your home, the fourth quarter of 2011 might be the right time!

Please feel free to contact me about listing your home or for more information on the Barrie real estate market. Be sure to pass this article along to friends and family who may find it interesting.

Sincerely,

Peggy Hill

Peggy Hill is a Broker of Record conducting business in the Barrie real estatemarket. She has many Barrie real estate listingsand is an expert in Barrie Homes for sale. Visit her website for more information about Barrie real estate.